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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor follows a simple formula. It commonly serves as a form of apology. Sorry we underestimated your squad in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround receives the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or simply the most shocking shock.

Yet this year's competition is profoundly unique. The list of nominees is unusually talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers ascending in unison. In an typical year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a wild and entertaining season, he's facing multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been afforded the chance to display his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With Johnson, Williams has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than improvising. It is an attack built entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a creative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Virtually every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a timing-based passer – has worked. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the head coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming choice. But this isn't a normal season!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously inconsistent. Defensive minds can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, he has nailed the off-field aspects, which wasn't a guarantee following his early public introduction and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring everyone and all elements together.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year collapse caused the Jags wobbling once more. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen did not. Instead, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen gets the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a defining moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just a single place ahead of peers.

Still